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These much-discussed shifts include a slump in the s of working-age people, the rapid aging of the population, and a growing gender imbalance with men ificantly outing women. Yet one absolutely momentous demographic trend has attracted far less attention: the coming transformation of the Chinese family structure. In the span of a generation, Chinese families will be much thinner than ever before.

Extended kinship networks will atrophy across the nation, and many people will no longer have close blood relatives. It amounts to a radical change in a society historically defined by the importance of filial ties.

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The withering of the Chinese family is by now essentially inevitable, and its ramifications will be felt surprisingly soon. It will impose financial burdens on individuals and limit their ability to move and pursue risky entrepreneurial careers. The Chinese state will see its economic power and defense policies curtailed.

Empires and states have conducted censuses for thousands of years—enumerating head counts for military mobilization, for example, or households for taxation—but governments have rarely collected data on the structure of families. Beijing is no exception.

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Researchers must turn to modeling, as we have, to understand what Chinese families will look like in the future according to historical and anticipated trends in birth, death, marriage, and divorce rates. This finding may seem counterintuitive, in that the stereotype of a traditional Chinese family from the past includes large contingents of siblings, cousins, and other relatives. But that image is actually misleading. Birthrates were higher in the past than they are now, but living kin were much scarcer thanks to higher death rates.

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As recently aswe estimate, only about seven percent of Chinese men and women in their 50s had any living parents; the corresponding figure today exceeds 60 percent. Counts of cousins are even more remarkable: only one in four Chinese people in their 30s had ten or more living cousins inbut more than 90 percent do today.

It seems safe to say that Chinese networks of relatives have never been as large as they were at the start of the twenty-first century.

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s of working-age siblings, cousins, uncles, aunts, and other relatives surged in post-Mao China, providing one another with access to professional and entrepreneurial opportunities as well as strengthening informal safety nets. Big families helped their members navigate the upheavals and transformations in the Chinese economy. But the extended family in China has already reached its quantitative zenith. Families in China are not only aging but shrinking—and at an accelerating pace.

Fertility rates increased slightly immediately after the relaxation of the one-child policy in but then slumped. The overall trajectory remains one of decline, running parallel to similar declines in fertility rates in East Asian countries that have not imposed coercive population control policies.

Inthe average young Chinese person under the age of 30 will have only a fifth as many cousins as today, and almost no young Chinese will live in families with large s of cousins.

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Barely one percent of those under ten will have ten or more China shrink reviews cousins byand almost one in six will have no cousins at all. A similar collapse looks to be in store for Chinese networks of uncles and aunts. The average s of aunts and uncles will soon be not only vastly lower than today but ificantly lower than pre-Mao times as well. Chinese people will have fewer siblings.

In earlier times, it was highly unusual for young people to have no living brothers or sisters, high death rates notwithstanding. Bytwo-fifths of Chinese under 50 will be only children. The slump in births that followed the lifting of the one-child policy in may have surprised planners in Beijing, but it should not have: sub-replacement level fertility rates are the norm today throughout East Asia, from Japan and South Korea to Taiwan and Hong Kong.

Even poorer neighbors, such as Myanmar and Vietnam, have seen similar declines in fertility rates. Still more siblingless young people will have just one or two such relatives. Thus, a ificant minority of this coming generation in China—many tens of millions of people—will traverse life from school through work and on into retirement with little or no firsthand experience of the traditional extended family so integral to Chinese culture.

Theirs will be the generation that in effect finds 2, years of Confucian tradition coming to an end. The percentage of the population over the age of 65 is on track to nearly triple by Today, four out of five Chinese men and women 70 and older have two or more living children.

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According to one economic studypersonal earnings plus public benefits cover less than half of current living costs in China for those aged 65 and older: family members make up the rest. Almost all of these childless seniors will be men. Our simulations suggest that share will rise to 14 percent by and 19 percent by Middle-aged people will face extraordinary new obligations for the care of aging parents.

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The overwhelming majority of middle-aged Chinese in will have elderly parents: more than 90 percent of men and women in their 40s will have at least one living parent and nearly three-fifths will have two of them. A substantial minority of middle-aged people will be only children or sole surviving children. Most of these only children will have not just one but two living parents when they are middle-aged.

Moreover, only children who marry only children will face the pressure in their middle-age years to care for both their parents and their in-laws. Those who do not marry—mostly men—will shoulder this filial burden alone. Material advances notwithstanding, the shrinking, aging, and more atomized China of may be a profoundly pessimistic place.

People over 65 will consume far more than they earn.

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An even bigger government, with more expansive public programs and greater claims on national or global resources, is on its way. These sorts of networks remain essential today and supply the necessary trust that helps business get done. The future plunge in living biological kin will batter the Chinese economy. With fewer family members, people might take fewer risks, eschewing entrepreneurship for more reliable but less productive forms of economic activity, such as rent seeking.

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Such risk aversion may also reduce both geographic and social mobility. The engines of urbanization may sputter if people do not have these extended networks, if they cannot stay with a cousin in the city, for example, or leave their children with relatives in the countryside.

To be sure, humans are adaptable social beings and functions traditionally performed by relatives will doubtless be approximated tomorrow, after a fashion, by neighbors, friends, and even the Internet.

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It is unclear how serviceable these substitutes will prove to be, even as the impending implosion of the extended family—until now, perhaps the central institution of Chinese civilization—is essentially certain.

A generation from now, China will likely be wealthier and more productive than it is today—but not nearly as wealthy and productive as its national directorate assumes it will be, thanks to these demographic headwinds. And if the waning of the family requires China to build a huge social welfare state over the coming generation, as we surmise it will, then Beijing will have that much less wherewithal at its disposal for influencing events abroad through economic diplomacy and defense policy.

The winnowing of the family could shape future Chinese foreign and defense strategy.

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Policymakers will be wary of any actions that could lead to great casualties. Beijing has a superb cadre of well-trained demographers upon whom Chinese leaders rely for expert advice.

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Follow Us. Open Oveflow Menu. Subscribe in. A pregnant mother and her daughter in Hefei, China, February in and save to read later. PEAK FAMILY Empires and states have conducted censuses for thousands of years—enumerating head counts for military mobilization, for example, or households for taxation—but governments have rarely collected data on the structure of families.

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China’s shrinking families

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